Public record
Software health reportschema 0.34.0 · metrics 2.10.0 · 2026-10-02 21:25 UTC

Metaculus / forecasting-tools

A framework for building a AI Forecasting Bot for Metaculus. Additionally AI Forecasting tools to help humans forecast the future.

Python · Jupyter NotebookMIT★ 83 stars⑂ 41 forkssince Dec 2024View on GitHub ↗
KindCommand-line toolLibraryhow this is determined

Metaculus/forecasting-tools holds a health index of 73 out of 100, placing it in the Good band. It scores highest on Engineering Quality (96/100) and lowest on Security (44/100). It was last updated today. A single contributor accounts for most of its recent work.

73
overall / 100
Good

Software health index

Metrics are grouped into weighted categories on one standardized 1–100 scale. Overall starts as their weighted mean, calibrated against the distribution of the public record so bands carry percentile meaning; when public evidence triggers the High-Risk Jurisdiction Policy, the rating is adjusted and receives an At Risk ceiling of 34.

73
Exceptional93-100The record's top tier (≈ top 5%); essentially all checked criteria met
Excellent80-92Strong across the board; minor gaps
Good65-79Healthy; gaps are limited and manageable
Moderate50-64Acceptable with notable gaps; review recommended
Weak35-49Material weaknesses across several areas
At Risk20-34Significant weaknesses; adoption warrants caution
Critical1-19Severe problems (abandoned, single-maintainer, no hygiene)
VitalityCommunity &AdoptionSustainability &GovernanceEngineeringQualitySecurityAI Readiness

Score profile

Each axis is a category. The shape matters more than the average — a healthy subject fills the whole shape, while a spike-and-crater profile means strength in one dimension is masking risk in another.

The weighted overall 64 is calibrated to 73 on the published index scale (record calibration 2026-08-02).

Ownership

MetaculusOrganization
58 followers18 public repossince Aug 2020

This repository is backed by an organization — shared, accountable stewardship that can outlive any single maintainer.

Package ecosystems

RegistryPackageVersionDownloads / moVersionsLast publishTags
PyPIforecasting-tools0.3.345,717980 days agoaiforecastingresearchmetaculuspredictionfuturemarket

Metrics by category

Vitality

Is the project alive — is code being written and are releases shipping?

59Moderate · 21% of overall
How it's scored
36/36Push recency — last push 0 days ago
33.2/36Commit cadence — 48/52 weeks with commits
18/18Commit volume — 152 commits in the last year
10/10OpenSSF Scorecard: Maintained — 30 commit(s) and 1 issue activity found in the last 90 days -- score normalized to 10
Inputs used
commits_last_year152
human_commit_share0.97
days_since_last_push0
active_weeks_last_year48
How it's scored
0/27Ships releases — no releases published
0/36Release recency — no releases
0/27Release cadence — no releases
0/10OpenSSF Scorecard: Signed-Releases — no data
Inputs used
releases_count0
Excluded from scoring (no data or not applicable): OpenSSF Scorecard: Signed-Releases. Remaining weights renormalized.

Community & Adoption

Does the project have users, downloads, attention, and a welcoming setup for contributors?

56Moderate · 17% of overall
How it's scored
31/60Stars — 83 stars
13.4/25Forks — 41 forks
3.9/15Watchers — 6 watchers
Inputs used
forks41
stars83
watchers6
growth_stateunverified
growth_factor_pct100
growth_unverified_reasonno_history
How it's scored
22.5/22.5README
22.5/22.5License — recognized license (MIT)
0/18CONTRIBUTING guide
0/13.5Code of conduct
0/7.2Issue template
0/6.3PR template
Inputs used
has_readmeyes
has_licenseyes
readme_badges4
has_contributingno
has_issue_templateno
has_code_of_conductno
readme_badge_servicesbadge.fury.io, shields.io
has_pull_request_templateno
How it's scored
62.1/80Monthly downloads — 45,717 downloads/month across pypi
0/20Registry dependents — not reported by this ecosystem
Inputs used
packagesforecasting-tools
dependents—
ecosystemspypi
total_downloads—
monthly_downloads45,717
unverified_packages_excluded—
Excluded from scoring (no data or not applicable): Registry dependents. Remaining weights renormalized.

Sustainability & Governance

Will the project survive its people — bus factor, responsiveness, who backs it, and package upkeep?

60Moderate · 23% of overall
How it's scored
9/54Bus factor — 1 contributor(s) cover half of all commits
7/22.5Commit distribution — top contributor authored 69% of commits
13.5/13.5Contributor breadth — 11 contributors
6/10OpenSSF Scorecard: Contributors — project has 2 contributing companies or organizations -- score normalized to 6
Inputs used
bus_factor1
contributors_sampled11
top_contributor_share0.688
How it's scored
20.3/42Issue resolution — 48% of issues closed
24.6/30PR acceptance — 252/307 decided PRs merged
0/13Newcomer PR acceptance — no first-time contributor's PR decided in 30d
0/15OpenSSF Scorecard: Code-Review — Found 0/30 approved changesets -- score normalized to 0
Inputs used
merged_prs252
open_issues15
closed_issues14
prs_merged_7d6
prs_decided_7d6
prs_merged_30d21
prs_decided_30d22
issue_closed_ratio0.483
closed_unmerged_prs55
first_time_authors_30d0
first_time_prs_merged_30d0
first_time_prs_decided_30d0
Excluded from scoring (no data or not applicable): Newcomer PR acceptance. Remaining weights renormalized.
How it's scored
30/30Ownership backing — organization-owned
0/20Verified domain
12.7/25Owner reach — 58 followers of Metaculus
21.3/25Track record — 18 public repos, account ~6 yr old
Inputs used
followers58
owner_typeOrganization
is_verifiedno
owner_loginMetaculus
public_repos18
account_age_days2,243

Package maintenance

100Exceptional
How it's scored
25/25Published & resolvable — 1 package(s) on pypi
35/35Publish recency — latest publish 0 days ago
20/20Version history — 98 published versions
20/20Not deprecated — active, not deprecated or yanked
Inputs used
packagesforecasting-tools
ecosystemspypi
any_deprecatedno
min_days_since_publish0

Engineering Quality

Are baseline engineering and documentation practices in place?

96Exceptional · 19% of overall
How it's scored
24/24CI workflows — 4 workflow(s)
24/24Tests present
16/16Linter config
9.6/9.6Pre-commit hooks
0/6.4.editorconfig
20/20OpenSSF Scorecard: CI-Tests — 30 out of 30 merged PRs checked by a CI test -- score normalized to 10
Inputs used
has_ciyes
has_testsyes
has_editorconfigno
has_linter_configyes
has_precommit_configyes

Documentation

100Exceptional
How it's scored
30/30README
25/25Documentation directory
15/15Documentation / homepage site — https://forecasting-tools.streamlit.app/
10/10Repository description
10/10Topics — 7 topics
10/10Wiki
Inputs used
topicsai, forecasting, future, metaculus, prediction, reasoning-agent, research-tool
has_wikiyes
homepagehttps://forecasting-tools.streamlit.app/
docs_sitehttps://forecasting-tools.streamlit.app/
has_readmeyes
has_docs_diryes
has_descriptionyes

Security

Are visible security and supply-chain practices strong, without unresolved high-risk jurisdiction exposure?

44Weak · 16% of overall
How it's scored
7.5/7.5Binary-Artifacts — no binaries found in the repo
2.2/7.5Branch-Protection — branch protection is not maximal on development and all release branches
2.5/2.5CI-Tests — 30 out of 30 merged PRs checked by a CI test -- score normalized to 10
0/2.5CII-Best-Practices — no effort to earn an OpenSSF best practices badge detected
0/7.5Code-Review — Found 0/30 approved changesets -- score normalized to 0
1.5/2.5Contributors — project has 2 contributing companies or organizations -- score normalized to 6
10/10Dangerous-Workflow — no dangerous workflow patterns detected
7.5/7.5Dependency-Update-Tool — update tool detected
0/5Fuzzing — project is not fuzzed
2.5/2.5License — license file detected
7.5/7.5Maintained — 30 commit(s) and 1 issue activity found in the last 90 days -- score normalized to 10
0/5Packaging — no data
0/5Pinned-Dependencies — dependency not pinned by hash detected -- score normalized to 0
0/5SAST — SAST tool is not run on all commits -- score normalized to 0
0/5Security-Policy — security policy file not detected
0/7.5Signed-Releases — no data
0/7.5Token-Permissions — detected GitHub workflow tokens with excessive permissions
0/7.5Vulnerabilities — 56 existing vulnerabilities detected
Inputs used
sourceopenssf_scorecard
checks_evaluated16
scorecard_versionv5.5.0
checks_inconclusive2
scorecard_aggregate4.5
Excluded from scoring (no data or not applicable): Packaging, Signed-Releases. Remaining weights renormalized.
How it's scored
5.6/35Direct dependencies free of known advisories — 3 affected: litellm 1.83.7 (critical 9.8), aiohttp 3.13.5 (high 7.5), python-dotenv 1.0.1 (moderate 6.6)
0/25Indirect dependencies free of known advisories — transitive set not separable from development and test dependencies in this scope
25/40No advisories left outstanding — 3 advisory-carrying package(s) unaddressed past 90 days; oldest published 165 days ago
Inputs used
sourceosv
advisories109
affected_packages11
assessed_packages239
unassessed_packages0
affected_by_severitycritical 3, high 7, moderate 1
direct_affected_packages3
Excluded from scoring (no data or not applicable): Indirect dependencies free of known advisories. Remaining weights renormalized. Matched 239 resolved dependencies against OSV. This repository publishes no package the index resolves, so the repository dependency graph was assessed instead. That graph mixes development and test pins with shipped dependencies, so only the declared runtime dependencies are scored; transitive findings are reported as context and excluded from the score. Reachability is not analyzed.

AI Readiness

How well is the repo equipped to be developed and maintained with AI coding agents? Carries a deliberately small weight (4%): agent tooling is a real maintenance signal, but a repository with none can still reach 100/100.

78Good · 4% of overall
How it's scored
45/45Agent instructions — .cursor/rules/code-tests.mdc, .cursor/rules/general-guidelines.mdc
15/15Machine-readable docs (llms.txt) — llms.txt served by the project website (https://docs.docker.com/llms.txt)
40/40Legible commit history — 93 of 97 human commits state their intent (structured subject or explanatory body)
Inputs used
has_llms_txtyes
llms_txt_urlhttps://docs.docker.com/llms.txt
legible_history_share0.959
agent_instruction_files.cursor/rules/code-tests.mdc, .cursor/rules/general-guidelines.mdc
agent_instruction_max_bytes634
How it's scored
0/18One-command bootstrap
22/22Automated tests
11/11Lint / format config
0/11Static type checking
10/10Reproducible environment — devcontainer, Dockerfile, lockfile
10/10Demonstrated agent practice — 15 of the last 100 commits agent-authored or agent-credited
8/8Automated maintenance — 3 of the last 100 commits are automated dependency updates
0/10OpenSSF Scorecard: Pinned-Dependencies — dependency not pinned by hash detected -- score normalized to 0
Inputs used
has_nixno
has_testsyes
lockfilespoetry.lock
has_dockerfileyes
typed_languageno
bootstrap_files—
has_devcontaineryes
has_linter_configyes
typecheck_configs—
agent_commit_share0.15
toolchain_manifests—
dependency_bot_commit_share0.03
How it's scored
0/45Type-checkable code — Python without a type-check config
54.6/55Manageable file sizes — 2/310 source files over 60KB
Inputs used
primary_languagePython
largest_source_bytes104,241
source_files_sampled310
oversized_source_files2
How it's scored
0/40API schema (OpenAPI/GraphQL/proto) — not applicable to this kind of software
0/20MCP server — not applicable to this kind of software
40/40Runnable examples — notebooks
Inputs used
example_dirsnotebooks
has_mcp_signalno
api_schema_files—
interfaces_expected_of—
Excluded from scoring (no data or not applicable): API schema (OpenAPI/GraphQL/proto), MCP server. Remaining weights renormalized.

Key facts

83GitHub stars
11contributors
152commits, last 12 months
0days since last push
0releases
1bus factor
15open issues
PyPIpackage ecosystems

Data collection warnings

  • Star history unavailable: GitHub GraphQL error: Resource not accessible by personal access token
  • deps.dev does not index pypi:forecasting-tools@0.3.3; advisories assessed against the repository dependency graph instead

More detail

Star and fork history 0 ★ / 41 ⇿
0Stars
41Forks

When each star and fork was added, collected from GitHub and bucketed by day. Cumulative growth sits directly above the daily additions it is made of, so the two read against each other: steady organic accretion looks nothing like an abrupt, short-lived burst. Where that difference is measurable, it is reported as growth authenticity.

0102030404022025-012025-112026-10

Each point covers 2 days.

OpenSSF Scorecard 4.5 / 10
4.5aggregate

Independent, tool-agnostic security assessment from the open-source OpenSSF Scorecard. Each check rewards a security practice, not a specific vendor's tool. Checks Scorecard could not determine are marked n/a and excluded from the security score (never counted as zero).Scorecard v5.5.0 · 2026-10-02 21:24 UTC

10Binary-Artifactsno binaries found in the repo
3Branch-Protectionbranch protection is not maximal on development and all release branches
10CI-Tests30 out of 30 merged PRs checked by a CI test -- score normalized to 10
0CII-Best-Practicesno effort to earn an OpenSSF best practices badge detected
0Code-ReviewFound 0/30 approved changesets -- score normalized to 0
6Contributorsproject has 2 contributing companies or organizations -- score normalized to 6
10Dangerous-Workflowno dangerous workflow patterns detected
10Dependency-Update-Toolupdate tool detected
0Fuzzingproject is not fuzzed
10Licenselicense file detected
10Maintained30 commit(s) and 1 issue activity found in the last 90 days -- score normalized to 10
n/aPackagingpackaging workflow not detected
0Pinned-Dependenciesdependency not pinned by hash detected -- score normalized to 0
0SASTSAST tool is not run on all commits -- score normalized to 0
0Security-Policysecurity policy file not detected
n/aSigned-Releasesno releases found
0Token-Permissionsdetected GitHub workflow tokens with excessive permissions
0Vulnerabilities56 existing vulnerabilities detected
Direct dependencies 33
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All dependencies 239

Full resolved dependency set from the GitHub dependency graph: 33 direct and 206 indirect (transitive) packages. The transitive closure is complete when the repository commits a lockfile.

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PyPItqdm4.70.0indirect
PyPItraitlets5.16.1indirect
PyPItruststore0.10.4indirect
PyPItyper0.27.2indirect
PyPItypes-requests2.33.0.20260906indirect
PyPItyping-extensions4.16.0indirect
PyPItyping-inspection0.4.4indirect
PyPItzdata2026.3indirect
PyPItzlocal5.4.4indirect
PyPIuri-template1.3.0indirect
PyPIurllib32.7.0indirect
PyPIuvicorn0.52.4indirect
PyPIvirtualenv21.7.8indirect
PyPIwatchdog6.0.0indirect
PyPIwcwidth0.8.3indirect
PyPIwebcolors25.10.0indirect
PyPIwebencodings0.6.1indirect
PyPIwebsocket-client1.9.2indirect
PyPIwebsockets15.0.1indirect
PyPIyarl1.24.5indirect
PyPIzipp4.1.0indirect
Dependency advisories 11

This repository publishes no package the index resolves, so its own dependency graph was assessed — 239 packages, which also include development and test pins that never ship: 11 carry known advisories, of which 3 are direct.

PackageVersionRelationSeverityAdvisoriesFixed in
litellm1.83.7directcritical181.96.2
cryptography46.0.6indirectcritical950.0.0
pyjwt2.13.0indirectcritical262.15.0
aiohttp3.13.5directhigh283.14.3
click8.1.8indirecthigh18.3.3
jupyterlab4.6.3indirecthigh67.6.3
notebook7.6.2indirecthigh27.6.3
tornado6.5.8indirecthigh36.5.9
urllib32.7.0indirecthigh62.8.0
virtualenv21.7.8indirecthigh821.7.13
python-dotenv1.0.1directmoderate21.2.2

An advisory means the version recorded in the dependency graph falls inside an advisory’s affected range. Reachability is not analysed, and the graph includes development and test pins — a finding may concern tooling rather than shipped software.

Raw JSON report machine-readable

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Scores are signals, not warranties. They reflect publicly visible practices on GitHub — not a code audit, and not a security guarantee.

Missing data is excluded and weights renormalized, never scored as zero. Methodology is versioned and open: metrics v2.10.0, schema v0.34.0 — full methodology · metrics wiki.

How one result sits in the wider record: aggregate statistics — PyPI.