bashtage / arch
ARCH models in Python
bashtage/arch holds a health index of 87 out of 100, placing it in the Excellent band. It scores highest on Engineering Quality (90/100) and lowest on AI Readiness (63/100). It was last updated 2 days ago. A single contributor accounts for most of its recent work.
Software health index
Metrics are grouped into weighted categories on one standardized 1–100 scale. Overall starts as their weighted mean, calibrated against the distribution of the public record so bands carry percentile meaning; when public evidence triggers the High-Risk Jurisdiction Policy, the rating is adjusted and receives an At Risk ceiling of 34.
Score profile
Each axis is a category. The shape matters more than the average — a healthy subject fills the whole shape, while a spike-and-crater profile means strength in one dimension is masking risk in another.
The weighted overall 73 is calibrated to 87 on the published index scale (record calibration 2026-08-02).
Ownership
This repository is owned by a personal account. A single-owner project carries more continuity risk than an organization-backed one.
Package ecosystems
| Registry | Package | Version | Downloads / mo | Versions | Last publish | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PyPI | arch | 8.0.0 | 988,068 | 48 | 295 days ago | archvarianceeconometricsvolatilityfinancegarchbootstraprandom-walkunit-rootdickey-fullertime-seriesconfidence-intervalsmultiple-comparisonsreality-checkspastepm |
Metrics by category
Vitality
Is the project alive — is code being written and are releases shipping?
Development activity
How it's scored
| 36/36 | Push recency — last push 2 days ago |
| 13.8/36 | Commit cadence — 20/52 weeks with commits |
| 18/18 | Commit volume — 129 commits in the last year |
| 10/10 | OpenSSF Scorecard: Maintained — 29 commit(s) and 1 issue activity found in the last 90 days -- score normalized to 10 |
Inputs used
| commits_last_year | 129 |
| human_commit_share | 0.87 |
| days_since_last_push | 2 |
| active_weeks_last_year | 20 |
Release discipline
How it's scored
| 27/27 | Ships releases — 50 releases published |
| 16.2/36 | Release recency — latest release 295 days ago |
| 19.8/27 | Release cadence — a release every ~98.1 days |
| 0/10 | OpenSSF Scorecard: Signed-Releases — no data |
Inputs used
| releases_count | 50 |
| latest_release_tag | v8.0.0 |
| releases_from_tags | no |
| days_since_latest_release | 295 |
| mean_days_between_releases | 98.1 |
Community & Adoption
Does the project have users, downloads, attention, and a welcoming setup for contributors?
Popularity & adoption
How it's scored
| 51.8/60 | Stars — 1,551 stars |
| 20.5/25 | Forks — 289 forks |
| 9.2/15 | Watchers — 47 watchers |
Inputs used
| forks | 289 |
| stars | 1,551 |
| watchers | 47 |
| growth_state | unverified |
| growth_factor_pct | 100 |
| growth_unverified_reason | no_history |
Community health
How it's scored
| 22.5/22.5 | README |
| 16.9/22.5 | License — license file present, not a recognized license |
| 0/18 | CONTRIBUTING guide |
| 0/13.5 | Code of conduct |
| 0/7.2 | Issue template |
| 0/6.3 | PR template |
Inputs used
| has_readme | yes |
| has_license | yes |
| readme_badges | 4 |
| has_contributing | no |
| has_issue_template | no |
| has_code_of_conduct | no |
| readme_badge_services | badge.fury.io, codecov.io, dev.azure.com, readthedocs.org |
| has_pull_request_template | no |
Ecosystem adoption (downloads)
How it's scored
| 79.9/80 | Monthly downloads — 988,068 downloads/month across pypi |
| 0/20 | Registry dependents — not reported by this ecosystem |
Inputs used
| packages | arch |
| dependents | — |
| ecosystems | pypi |
| total_downloads | — |
| monthly_downloads | 988,068 |
| unverified_packages_excluded | — |
Sustainability & Governance
Will the project survive its people — bus factor, responsiveness, who backs it, and package upkeep?
Maintainer resilience (bus factor)
How it's scored
| 9/54 | Bus factor — 1 contributor(s) cover half of all commits |
| 1.8/22.5 | Commit distribution — top contributor authored 92% of commits |
| 13.5/13.5 | Contributor breadth — 32 contributors |
| 10/10 | OpenSSF Scorecard: Contributors — project has 14 contributing companies or organizations |
Inputs used
| bus_factor | 1 |
| contributors_sampled | 32 |
| top_contributor_share | 0.922 |
How it's scored
| 36.8/42 | Issue resolution — 88% of issues closed |
| 25.9/30 | PR acceptance — 534/619 decided PRs merged |
| 0/13 | Newcomer PR acceptance — no first-time contributor's PR decided in 30d |
| 1.5/15 | OpenSSF Scorecard: Code-Review — Found 1/8 approved changesets -- score normalized to 1 |
Inputs used
| merged_prs | 534 |
| open_issues | 27 |
| closed_issues | 190 |
| prs_merged_7d | 0 |
| prs_decided_7d | 0 |
| prs_merged_30d | 1 |
| prs_decided_30d | 3 |
| issue_closed_ratio | 0.876 |
| closed_unmerged_prs | 85 |
| first_time_authors_30d | 0 |
| first_time_prs_merged_30d | 0 |
| first_time_prs_decided_30d | 0 |
Ownership & stewardship
How it's scored
| 10/30 | Ownership backing — personal (user) account |
| 0/20 | Verified domain — not applicable to user accounts |
| 22.7/25 | Owner reach — 1,438 followers of bashtage |
| 23.7/25 | Track record — 40 public repos, account ~12 yr old |
Inputs used
| followers | 1,438 |
| owner_type | User |
| is_verified | — |
| owner_login | bashtage |
| public_repos | 40 |
| account_age_days | 4,698 |
Package maintenance
How it's scored
| 25/25 | Published & resolvable — 1 package(s) on pypi |
| 26/35 | Publish recency — latest publish 295 days ago |
| 20/20 | Version history — 48 published versions |
| 20/20 | Not deprecated — active, not deprecated or yanked |
Inputs used
| packages | arch |
| ecosystems | pypi |
| any_deprecated | no |
| min_days_since_publish | 295 |
Engineering Quality
Are baseline engineering and documentation practices in place?
Engineering practices
How it's scored
| 24/24 | CI workflows — 3 workflow(s) |
| 24/24 | Tests present |
| 16/16 | Linter config — .flake8 |
| 0/9.6 | Pre-commit hooks |
| 0/6.4 | .editorconfig |
| 20/20 | OpenSSF Scorecard: CI-Tests — 15 out of 15 merged PRs checked by a CI test -- score normalized to 10 |
Inputs used
| has_ci | yes |
| has_tests | yes |
| has_editorconfig | no |
| has_linter_config | yes |
| has_precommit_config | no |
Documentation
How it's scored
| 30/30 | README |
| 25/25 | Documentation directory |
| 15/15 | Documentation / homepage site — http://bashtage.github.io/arch/ |
| 10/10 | Repository description |
| 10/10 | Topics — 19 topics |
| 10/10 | Wiki |
Inputs used
| topics | arch, volatility, bootstrap, multiple-comparison-procedures, forecasting, risk, financial-econometrics, time-series, unit-root, dickey-fuller, adf, phillips-perron, df-gls, reality-check, spa, model-confidence-set, finance, variance, garch |
| has_wiki | yes |
| homepage | http://bashtage.github.io/arch/ |
| docs_site | http://bashtage.github.io/arch/ |
| has_readme | yes |
| has_docs_dir | yes |
| has_description | yes |
Security
Are visible security and supply-chain practices strong, without unresolved high-risk jurisdiction exposure?
Security posture
How it's scored
| 7.5/7.5 | Binary-Artifacts — no binaries found in the repo |
| 0/7.5 | Branch-Protection — no data |
| 2.5/2.5 | CI-Tests — 15 out of 15 merged PRs checked by a CI test -- score normalized to 10 |
| 0/2.5 | CII-Best-Practices — no effort to earn an OpenSSF best practices badge detected |
| 0.8/7.5 | Code-Review — Found 1/8 approved changesets -- score normalized to 1 |
| 2.5/2.5 | Contributors — project has 14 contributing companies or organizations |
| 10/10 | Dangerous-Workflow — no dangerous workflow patterns detected |
| 7.5/7.5 | Dependency-Update-Tool — update tool detected |
| 0/5 | Fuzzing — project is not fuzzed |
| 2.2/2.5 | License — license file detected |
| 7.5/7.5 | Maintained — 29 commit(s) and 1 issue activity found in the last 90 days -- score normalized to 10 |
| 0/5 | Packaging — no data |
| 0/5 | Pinned-Dependencies — dependency not pinned by hash detected -- score normalized to 0 |
| 4.5/5 | SAST — SAST tool detected but not run on all commits |
| 0/5 | Security-Policy — security policy file not detected |
| 0/7.5 | Signed-Releases — no data |
| 0/7.5 | Token-Permissions — detected GitHub workflow tokens with excessive permissions |
| 5.2/7.5 | Vulnerabilities — 3 existing vulnerabilities detected |
Inputs used
| source | openssf_scorecard |
| checks_evaluated | 15 |
| scorecard_version | v5.5.0 |
| checks_inconclusive | 3 |
| scorecard_aggregate | 5.9 |
Dependency advisories
How it's scored
| 35/35 | Direct dependencies free of known advisories — no direct dependency carries a known advisory |
| 25/25 | Indirect dependencies free of known advisories — no indirect dependency carries a known advisory |
| 0/40 | No advisories left outstanding — no advisory carries a publication date |
Inputs used
| source | osv |
| advisories | 0 |
| affected_packages | 0 |
| assessed_packages | 8 |
| unassessed_packages | 0 |
| affected_by_severity | none |
| direct_affected_packages | 0 |
AI Readiness
How well is the repo equipped to be developed and maintained with AI coding agents? Carries a deliberately small weight (4%): agent tooling is a real maintenance signal, but a repository with none can still reach 100/100.
Agent context & guidance
How it's scored
| 0/45 | Agent instructions — no CLAUDE.md / AGENTS.md / editor rules |
| 0/15 | Machine-readable docs (llms.txt) |
| 26.4/40 | Legible commit history — 43 of 87 human commits state their intent (structured subject or explanatory body) |
Inputs used
| has_llms_txt | no |
| llms_txt_url | — |
| legible_history_share | 0.494 |
| agent_instruction_files | — |
| agent_instruction_max_bytes | — |
How it's scored
| 18/18 | One-command bootstrap — doc/Makefile |
| 22/22 | Automated tests |
| 11/11 | Lint / format config — .flake8 |
| 11/11 | Static type checking — arch/py.typed, py.typed |
| 0/10 | Reproducible environment |
| 2/10 | Demonstrated agent practice — 1 of the last 100 commits agent-authored or agent-credited |
| 8/8 | Automated maintenance — 13 of the last 100 commits are automated dependency updates |
| 0/10 | OpenSSF Scorecard: Pinned-Dependencies — dependency not pinned by hash detected -- score normalized to 0 |
Inputs used
| has_nix | no |
| has_tests | yes |
| lockfiles | — |
| has_dockerfile | no |
| typed_language | no |
| bootstrap_files | doc/Makefile |
| has_devcontainer | no |
| has_linter_config | yes |
| typecheck_configs | arch/py.typed, py.typed |
| agent_commit_share | 0.01 |
| toolchain_manifests | — |
| dependency_bot_commit_share | 0.13 |
How it's scored
| 27/45 | Type-checkable code — Python with type-check config (arch/py.typed, py.typed) |
| 51.1/55 | Manageable file sizes — 8/112 source files over 60KB |
Inputs used
| primary_language | Python |
| largest_source_bytes | 125,496 |
| source_files_sampled | 112 |
| oversized_source_files | 8 |
Machine-readable interfaces
How it's scored
| 0/40 | API schema (OpenAPI/GraphQL/proto) — not applicable to this kind of software |
| 0/20 | MCP server — not applicable to this kind of software |
| 40/40 | Runnable examples — examples, notebooks |
Inputs used
| example_dirs | examples, notebooks |
| has_mcp_signal | no |
| api_schema_files | — |
| interfaces_expected_of | — |
Key facts
Data collection warnings
- Star history unavailable: GitHub GraphQL error: Resource not accessible by personal access token
More detail
Star and fork history 0 ★ / 289 ⇿
When each star and fork was added, collected from GitHub and bucketed by day. Cumulative growth sits directly above the daily additions it is made of, so the two read against each other: steady organic accretion looks nothing like an abrupt, short-lived burst. Where that difference is measurable, it is reported as growth authenticity.
Each point covers 11 days.
OpenSSF Scorecard 5.9 / 10
Independent, tool-agnostic security assessment from the open-source OpenSSF Scorecard. Each check rewards a security practice, not a specific vendor's tool. Checks Scorecard could not determine are marked n/a and excluded from the security score (never counted as zero).
| 10 | Binary-Artifacts | no binaries found in the repo |
| n/a | Branch-Protection | internal error: error during branchesHandler.setup: internal error: some github tokens can't read classic branch protection rules: https://github.com/ossf/scorecard-action/blob/main/docs/authentication/fine-grained-auth-token.md |
| 10 | CI-Tests | 15 out of 15 merged PRs checked by a CI test -- score normalized to 10 |
| 0 | CII-Best-Practices | no effort to earn an OpenSSF best practices badge detected |
| 1 | Code-Review | Found 1/8 approved changesets -- score normalized to 1 |
| 10 | Contributors | project has 14 contributing companies or organizations |
| 10 | Dangerous-Workflow | no dangerous workflow patterns detected |
| 10 | Dependency-Update-Tool | update tool detected |
| 0 | Fuzzing | project is not fuzzed |
| 9 | License | license file detected |
| 10 | Maintained | 29 commit(s) and 1 issue activity found in the last 90 days -- score normalized to 10 |
| n/a | Packaging | packaging workflow not detected |
| 0 | Pinned-Dependencies | dependency not pinned by hash detected -- score normalized to 0 |
| 9 | SAST | SAST tool detected but not run on all commits |
| 0 | Security-Policy | security policy file not detected |
| n/a | Signed-Releases | no releases found |
| 0 | Token-Permissions | detected GitHub workflow tokens with excessive permissions |
| 7 | Vulnerabilities | 3 existing vulnerabilities detected |
Direct dependencies 5
| Registry | Package | Version constraint | Manifest |
|---|---|---|---|
| PyPI | numpy | >=1.22.3,<3 | pyproject.toml |
| PyPI | pandas | >=1.4.0 | pyproject.toml |
| PyPI | scipy | >=1.8 | pyproject.toml |
| PyPI | statsmodels | >=0.13.0 | pyproject.toml |
| PyPI | packaging | — | pyproject.toml |
All dependencies 94
Full resolved dependency set from the GitHub dependency graph: 5 direct and 89 indirect (transitive) packages. The transitive closure is complete when the repository commits a lockfile.
| Registry | Package | Version | Relation |
|---|---|---|---|
| PyPI | numpy | — | direct |
| PyPI | packaging | — | direct |
| PyPI | pandas | — | direct |
| PyPI | scipy | — | direct |
| PyPI | statsmodels | — | direct |
| PyPI | akaike | — | indirect |
| PyPI | biometrika | — | indirect |
| PyPI | bithell | — | indirect |
| PyPI | black | — | indirect |
| PyPI | bollerslev | — | indirect |
| PyPI | chernick | — | indirect |
| PyPI | colorama | — | indirect |
| PyPI | cushing | — | indirect |
| PyPI | cython | — | indirect |
| PyPI | davison | — | indirect |
| PyPI | dimitris | — | indirect |
| PyPI | econometrica | — | indirect |
| PyPI | econometrics | — | indirect |
| PyPI | efron | — | indirect |
| PyPI | engle | — | indirect |
| PyPI | fama | — | indirect |
| PyPI | flake8 | — | indirect |
| PyPI | flake8-bugbear | — | indirect |
| PyPI | fonttools | — | indirect |
| PyPI | foroni | — | indirect |
| PyPI | gjr | — | indirect |
| PyPI | granger | — | indirect |
| PyPI | halbert | — | indirect |
| PyPI | hannan | — | indirect |
| PyPI | hanning | — | indirect |
| PyPI | hobijn | — | indirect |
| PyPI | ipython | — | indirect |
| PyPI | isort | — | indirect |
| PyPI | jinja2 | — | indirect |
| PyPI | joblib | — | indirect |
| PyPI | jupyter | — | indirect |
| PyPI | jupyter-server | — | indirect |
| PyPI | jupyterlab | — | indirect |
| PyPI | jupyterlab-code-formatter | — | indirect |
| PyPI | khrapov | — | indirect |
| PyPI | kwiatkowski | — | indirect |
| PyPI | lunde | — | indirect |
| PyPI | marcellino | — | indirect |
| PyPI | massimiliano | — | indirect |
| PyPI | matplotlib | — | indirect |
| PyPI | meson | — | indirect |
| PyPI | meson-python | — | indirect |
| PyPI | mypy | — | indirect |
| PyPI | nason | — | indirect |
| PyPI | nbconvert | — | indirect |
| PyPI | nbsphinx | — | indirect |
| PyPI | neerlandica | — | indirect |
| PyPI | newey | — | indirect |
| PyPI | ninja | — | indirect |
| PyPI | norges | — | indirect |
| PyPI | notebook | — | indirect |
| PyPI | numba | — | indirect |
| PyPI | numpydoc | — | indirect |
| PyPI | ooms | — | indirect |
| PyPI | parameterless | — | indirect |
| PyPI | patsy | — | indirect |
| PyPI | perron | — | indirect |
| PyPI | pickleshare | — | indirect |
| PyPI | politis | — | indirect |
| PyPI | psutil | — | indirect |
| PyPI | pytest | — | indirect |
| PyPI | pytest-cov | — | indirect |
| PyPI | pytest-randomly | — | indirect |
| PyPI | pytest-xdist | — | indirect |
| PyPI | pyupgrade | — | indirect |
| PyPI | reisz | — | indirect |
| PyPI | rothenberg | — | indirect |
| PyPI | ruff | — | indirect |
| PyPI | saikkonen | — | indirect |
| PyPI | schwarz | — | indirect |
| PyPI | schwert | — | indirect |
| PyPI | seaborn | — | indirect |
| PyPI | setuptools | — | indirect |
| PyPI | setuptools-scm | — | indirect |
| PyPI | sheppard | — | indirect |
| PyPI | sphinx | — | indirect |
| PyPI | sphinx-autodoc-typehints | — | indirect |
| PyPI | sphinx-immaterial | — | indirect |
| PyPI | stanislav | — | indirect |
| PyPI | stata | — | indirect |
| PyPI | tibshirani | — | indirect |
| PyPI | tornado | — | indirect |
| PyPI | tukey | — | indirect |
| PyPI | varanelli | — | indirect |
| PyPI | wheel | — | indirect |
| PyPI | wooldridge | — | indirect |
| PyPI | zenodo | — | indirect |
| PyPI | zipp | — | indirect |
| PyPI | zivot | — | indirect |
Dependency advisories 0
Installing pypi:arch@8.0.0 pulls in 8 packages, direct and transitive: 0 carry known advisories, of which 0 are direct dependencies.
No known advisories affect the assessed dependencies.
An advisory means the version recorded in the dependency graph falls inside an advisory’s affected range. Reachability is not analysed, and the graph includes development and test pins — a finding may concern tooling rather than shipped software.
Raw JSON report machine-readable
Feedback
Spotted something off in this report, or have thoughts to share? Wrong measurements, missed tooling, ideas, questions — anything is welcome. Every message is read and gets a response.
Scores are signals, not warranties. They reflect publicly visible practices on GitHub — not a code audit, and not a security guarantee.
Missing data is excluded and weights renormalized, never scored as zero. Methodology is versioned and open: metrics v2.10.0, schema v0.31.0 — full methodology · metrics wiki.
How one result sits in the wider record: aggregate statistics — PyPI.